May 19, 2011

On Board 7, both sides vulnerable, I dealt and picked up a balanced minimum.  
This would be a perfect hand to open 1NT if I were playing weak NT.  But Leah 
and I play strong NT, so I opened 1D, as would most pairs in the room.  
Typically, if one is 4-4 in the minors, one opens 1D.  One would open 1C if 3-3 
in the minors (if NT or a major cannot be opened) or would typically open 1C if 5-5 
in clubs and spades.

 
10 4
Q J 7
A Q 5 2
A 5 4 3

Leah responded 1 spade and I briefly considered rebidding 2C but quickly 
decided against it. For one, my club suit isn't very good.  For another, 1NT is 
simply much more descriptive, both in terms of high-card points and in terms of 
distribution (no 5-card suit).  Partner will know I probably have between 12 and 
14 points.  After my 1NT bid, Leah bid 2C, which I alerted as New Minor Forcing.  
This bid is forcing for one round and asks me to describe my hand further; it 
says nothing about clubs.  She almost certainly has five spades and could have 
four hearts as well.  She will not be 4-4 in the majors, or she would have bid 
1H over my 1D opening.

Our agreement is that my first duty is to show a 4-card heart suit, if I have it, 
by bidding 2H, because it would be better to play in a 4-4 heart fit than in a 5-3 
spade fit (Both sides can ruff and the side 5-card suit provides extra length for 
discards.)  If I don't have four hearts, then I can bid 2S if I have 3-card spade 
support.  I unfortunately don't have either, so I bid 2NT despite my poor spots 
in clubs.   As I put the bid down, I realize that 3C might be a better bid. Partner 
would probably be able to infer that I have 2-3-4-4 distribution, given that I  

1. denied 3 spades and 4 hearts and
2. bid NT on my first rebid rather than clubs, which I might have done if I held more than 4 of either minor.

But, 2NT is on the table and partner raises to 3NT.  She must have a pretty good
hand.  West leads the Ten of Hearts and I see:

A Q J 8 7 3
K 8 3
3
Q 7 2

10 4
Q J 7
A Q 5 2
A 5 4 3

Indeed she does have a good hand. I am surprised to see six spades, however.  
She probably wanted to make a forcing bid over 1NT, so she didn't want to bid 
2S or even 3S.  She might have jumped to 4S over my 2NT bid though...OK, 
why I am worrying about that?  I've got to make 3NT.

First of all, will I clearly make this?  I likely will take at least five spade tricks, 
two heart tricks, and two aces.  But this is not guaranteed.  I may not be able to 
get over to dummy to run the spades.  In any case, I am certainly going to keep 
that King of Hearts in dummy as long as I can for a future entry, so I play low in 
dummy.  RHO plays low and I win the Jack.

I said I hoped to win at least five spades, but of course I'd rather win six of
them!  So, I lead the Spade Ten and it rides around to RHO who hesitates briefly 
before winning the King.  So, RHO must have held exactly Kx of spades.  It 
would be unethical for him to hesitate before playing a singleton and if he had 
Kxx he would certainly duck the trick, because by holding up he might be able to 
keep me from getting to dummy to run the spades.

Now RHO leads the Jack of Diamonds.  I went in the tank.  Do I win this?   If so, 
with what?  Suddenly my contract does not seem secure, as I have not yet 
knocked out the Heart Ace.  If I go up with the Diamond Ace now, my diamond 
suit is a bit vulnerable.  If my RHO has the Heart Ace (and ducked smoothly at
trick one), then he might get in later and lead diamonds through my Queen.  I 
decide to duck and intend to win the second diamond with the Ace. (More on 
this decision later.)  However, he does not continue the suit!  After a long 
hesitation, he leads a small heart.  I cover with the Queen and after another 
long hesitation, LHO plays the third round of hearts, which I take per force in 
dummy, RHO following suit.  I am in dummy, and have now won two tricks and 
lost three.

A Q J 8 7
--
--
Q 7 2

4
--
A Q 5
A 5 4 3

I can take 5 more spades and my two Aces to get to nine tricks.  It seems that 
if I do anything else I am risking the contract.  I sure wish I had a diamond in 
dummy so I could try the diamond finesse!  Oh well, I take my nine tricks  and 
am chagrined to see that RHO has the Diamond King.

This is not a good result, since almost all pairs are in 4S making 4 for 620,
beating our 600.

        A Q J 8 7 3
        K 8 3
        3
        Q 7 2
6 5 2               K 9
A 10 9 2            6 5 4
9 7 4               K J 10 8 6
K 9 6               J 10 8
        10 4
        Q J 7
        A Q 5 2
        A 5 4 3

Thoughts?

I have plenty of them.  We could have gotten a cold top if I had won 10 tricks. 
Recall that at the beginning of the hand I had noted that we should have been 
in spades, but then turned my attention to trying to just make 3NT?  Well, I 
should have stopped to consider whether I could make 4 Spades.  Why?  Well, 
most pairs were going to be in 4 Spades, and we are trying to beat them; 
afterall, that is the goal in Duplicate Bridge.  So, if N/S can take 10 tricks in 
Spades, then taking nine tricks in NT is not enough.  However, if 4 Spades is 
going down, then I should be getting a very good result for taking 9 tricks.

So, thought #1 is that I should have assessed the 4S contract at the table, as 
it could inform how I would have played the contract, starting at trick 3.  At that 
point I knew I had a club loser and heart loser.  How would those in 4S avoid 
two club losers?  One chance would be for the diamond finesse to win, and then 
throw a club from dummy on my Ace of Diamonds.  The other chance would be 
for LHO to hold the Club King.  A good declarer would hope to have the opportunity 
to combine both chances by leading low to the Club Queen first, and if that 
failed then try the diamond finesse. (This is assuming that the opponents have 
not forced his hand first, by cutting communication to dummy or leading a 
diamond early in the hand, like my RHO did to me.)  But, my guess is that most 
4S declarers may find themselves in dummy after drawing trump and will need 
to try the diamond finesse to find the tenth trick.

Thought #2:  Instead of ducking, should I have played the Diamond Queen 
(finessing) at trick 3?  This puts me on equal footing (which I need) against all 
of the 4 Spade bidders, if I am assuming they will also finesse the diamond.  
If the finesse loses, what happens?  If LHO continues hearts (he shouldn't), 
then I would have my 9 tricks.  If instead LHO returns a diamond to knock out 
my Ace, I could be in trouble, as then my Diamond suit is wide open, and 
opponents are going to get in when they win their Heart Ace to continue those 
diamonds!

So, it seems that if the finesse was working, I needed to take it, and if it was 
not working then I was no worse off than the 4S bidders.  Given that this was 
my only chance to finesse, I believe I should have tried it.

Thought #3:  If I didn't try the finesse at trick 3, I should have at least gone up
with the Ace of Diamonds.  It seems that my LHO is more likely to have the Ace 
of Hearts than my RHO, so my Diamond Queen would be protected.  This isn't 
certain ... I didn't know how to read RHO's hesitation at trick 3.

One last point here.  It is always good to ask why the opponents play a certain 
way.   We all know that it is good practice to lead back partner's suit.  When 
that doesn't happen, we should ask, "Why not?"  So here, why didn't RHO lead 
back a heart at trick 3?  Could I have used the fact that he didn't to draw any 
conclusions about his diamonds?

Often such a play would mean the player believes his own suit will be easier to 
set up than partner's suit, and in this case that would suggest my RHO had the 
missing diamonds (so I should finesse).   However, a couple of other factors 
were at work here:

1. Dummy had a singleton diamond, so a diamond shift might be reasonable. RHO could be desperate to get his side's diamonds before I go up and run all of those spades. If he led a heart back to his partner's Ace, his partner would be on lead and would have to lead away from any diamond tricks he had.
2. The play at trick 1 pretty much told the heart story, so RHO knew I had hearts double-stopped. My LHO led the Ten, which denied that he held the Jack. (This is why I won with the Jack instead of the Queen, because both opponents knew I must hold the Jack--play the card you are known to hold.) RHO probably also read me for the Queen of Hearts, even though I tried to hide it. Afterall, would I have bid NT twice with Jxx of hearts? Would his partner have led the Ten of Hearts from AQTx? Not likely. So, RHO knew there was not too much future in hearts.

I give my RHO credit for not continuing the diamonds.  Perhaps he interpreted 
his partner's negative signal properly, but maybe if I had ducked smoothly 
instead of thinking all of those thoughts above, he would have played another 
one.

So, what do we take away from this hand?

1. When you aren't in a normal contract, take a little time to estimate how many tricks your counterparts at the other tables will be making, and plan accordingly. In this case, I was actually in a *better* contract, as the cards lay, and I didn't take advantage of it.
2. When you only have one chance to take a finesse, and your opponent's give it to you, you should take it, especially when ducking won't help anyway!
3. When you duck a trick, you need to do it quickly or your opponents will know the situation.